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Something Wicked This Way Comes
As my firm’s Chief Investment Officer, it’s my role (among other things) to provide thought leadership for the organization and its representatives – to outline and explain best practices and...
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Missed It By *This* Much
It’s part of the gig. A Wall Street strategist, economist or even a run-of-the-mill investment manager gets a crack on financial television and is asked about his or her forecast for the market....
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Exhibit A
I have often warned against making investment decisions based upon political commitments, and I am hardly alone. A wonderful/dreadful example is provided by Stephen Moore, who announced this week that...
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50 Years Ago Last Night
On February 9, 1964, The Beatles, the greatest rock-n-roll band of all-time, made their first American television appearance on The Ed Sullivan Show, opening with All My Lovin’ and following up...
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Big Buy Signal
Now marketing himself as a “rogue economist,” Harry Dent is forecasting “gold down to $750 an ounce, housing down 35%, oil down to $10 a barrel, the Dow down to 6,000, [and] a war between inflation and...
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More Probability Suckage
I have often noted (see here too) that we generally suck at math, to our great detriment. I have also noted that we are especially poor at dealing with probabilities. If a weather forecaster says that...
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Optimism Bias at Work
ESPN has 32 team bloggers, and each has predicted the 2014 season record for the team he or she (they aren’t all guys) covers. They are remarkably positive on the chances for each team next season,...
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Kobayashi Maru and the Forecasting Follies
In the Star Trek universe, the Kobayashi Maru is a Starfleet Academy training exercise for future officers in the command track. It takes place on a replica of a starship bridge with the test-taker as...
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Doing Too Much
It was the worst moment in San Diego Chargers history, even worse than drafting Ryan Leaf (who, coincidentally, was released from prison this week). On January 14, 2007 I was in the stands with my...
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Here We Go Again: Forecasting Follies 2016
Image from xkcd In a great scene from the classic film, The Wizard of Oz, Dorothy and her friends have — after some difficulty and fanfare — obtained an audience with “the great and powerful Oz.”...
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